Cases
The decision is expensive to reverse — and everyone around it agrees with you
Opponentura is not for everyday calls. It is for the step that is hard to undo: a signature, a wire, a dismissal, a launch. Below are the nine business situations people bring most often. What they share is that the cost of getting it wrong is paid once and in full, and nobody around the table has an incentive to say so.
If there is no decision yet — you have been going round in circles for three months — bring the situation instead. The panel puts two to four genuinely different options on the table, each with its danger stated plainly, you pick one, and that one gets attacked.
Stress-test a decision What it costs
| Situation | What usually gets missed | What you walk away with |
|---|---|---|
| I am buying out my co-founder | the price is negotiated, the exit terms are not | what actually transfers with the shares — and what does not |
| We have a term sheet on the table | the valuation is read, the control terms are skimmed | which clauses decide the next round, not this one |
| The bank will lend to the company — against a personal guarantee | a business decision, paid from the family balance sheet | the threshold past which it becomes a bet on everything you own |
| I have to let go of the executive our clients follow | it ripens for months and is executed in a week | the sequence that keeps the most clients and the least exposure |
| We are cutting the team by a third | the saving is modelled, the aftermath is assumed | the point at which the cut stops paying for itself |
| We are entering a new market next quarter | demand is inferred from the home market | the cheapest test that could falsify the plan before the budget goes |
| We are raising prices by thirty per cent | churn is estimated by the people who set the price | which segment leaves first, and what to watch in the first 60 days |
| We are standardizing on one supplier | the switching cost is discovered at renewal | what the exit costs, and what to put in the contract now |
| Do we litigate or settle? | “good chances” is not a number | the settlement number below which fighting is worth it |
Deals and money
“I am buying out my co-founder”
The trap. The price gets negotiated for weeks; the terms of the exit get an evening. What you are buying is rarely what you think you are buying — a share of the equity is not a share of the client relationships, and the people who leave with your partner are not in the contract.
What the panel does. The other side of the table shows where you will be held up. The CFO prices the earn-out against the cash you will actually have. A veteran of a buyout that went wrong describes what year two looks like.
What you get. What actually transfers with the shares, what stays with your partner, and the clauses that decide it.
“We have a term sheet on the table”
The trap. Founders read the valuation and skim the control terms. The number on page one is decided by clauses on page four: liquidation preference, anti-dilution, board composition, the consent list.
What the panel does. Counsel reads what you are signing rather than the summary email. The CFO models the exit at which you personally get nothing. A founder who has been through the next round names what he wishes he had refused.
What you get. Which clauses decide your next round rather than this one, and which two are worth spending your negotiating capital on.
“The bank will lend to the company — against a personal guarantee”
The trap. It is decided in the logic of the business and paid from the family balance sheet. Between the first missed covenant and enforcement there are fewer steps than the term sheet suggests, and they are written in the security documents, not in the credit committee's deck.
What the panel does. The CFO works out at what fall in revenue the first breach arrives and how many months of runway sit behind it. Counsel reads the enforcement and cross-default terms. A veteran of insolvency describes the order in which things are taken.
What you get. The threshold past which this stops being leverage and becomes a bet on everything you own — and what to renegotiate before signing.
People
“I have to let go of the executive our clients follow”
The trap. It ripens for months and is executed in a week. The revenue attached to one person is known to everybody and written down by nobody; the legal exposure is discovered after the conversation, not before it.
What the panel does. The HR lawyer sets out the sequence and the notice arithmetic in your jurisdiction. The domain expert estimates which accounts move and when. The other side of the table — your executive — explains what he does next, including the part you would rather not think about.
What you get. The order of steps that keeps the most clients and the least exposure, and the date by which the successor has to be in the room.
“We are cutting the team by a third”
The trap. The saving is modelled to the euro; the aftermath is assumed. Delivery capacity, the people who leave voluntarily three months later, and the cost of hiring back are usually missing from the same spreadsheet.
What the panel does. The CFO separates the saving that is real from the saving that returns as contractor invoices. The operator names what stops shipping. The bias reviewer looks at whether the cut is sized by the numbers or by what feels decisive.
What you get. What the cut costs in delivery, the point at which it stops paying, and the smaller version that gets most of the saving.
“Do we litigate or settle?”
The trap. “Good chances” is not a number, and the case is priced in legal fees alone. Two years of management attention, disclosure, and what the dispute does to the commercial relationship are left out.
What the panel does. Counsel puts a number and a range on the outcome. The CFO prices the case in money, time and attention against the settlement on the table. The other side explains why they will not fold.
What you get. The settlement number below which fighting is worth it — and the date at which that stops being true.
Growth and commitments
“We are entering a new market next quarter”
The trap. Demand is inferred from the home market, and the plan is built so that nothing can disprove it before the budget is spent. Distribution, not product, is what usually fails.
What the panel does. The domain expert names who already owns the channel there. The methodologist writes the pre-mortem: it is eighteen months later and the launch failed — here is the story. The CFO prices the exit.
What you get. The cheapest test that could falsify the plan in weeks rather than quarters, and the condition under which you stop.
“We are raising prices by thirty per cent”
The trap. Churn is estimated by the same people who set the price. The customers who leave first are rarely the ones modelled, and the quiet ones do not complain — they renew somewhere else.
What the panel does. The domain expert segments who actually leaves and when. The other side of the table is your largest account, reading the letter you are about to send. The CFO checks the volume you can afford to lose.
What you get. Which segment goes first, what to watch in the first sixty days, and the fallback that does not look like a retreat.
“We are standardizing on one supplier”
The trap. The switching cost is discovered at renewal, when it is priced into your invoice. Migration, data export and the clause that lets them change terms are decided now and paid for in three years.
What the panel does. Counsel reads the exit, the data and the price-review clauses. The operator estimates the real cost of moving away in a year. The veteran of a lock-in describes the renewal conversation you will have.
What you get. What leaving actually costs, and the three terms worth insisting on while you still have a choice.
Not only business
Personal decisions are handled separately
A guarantee for a relative, a divorce settlement, an inheritance, moving the family abroad — the panel takes those too, and without moralizing: it criticizes the decision, not you. They live on their own page so that the two conversations do not get mixed up.
Scope
Yours is not on the list?
This is a hint, not a catalogue: the panel is assembled around a specific decision, not a category. Hard negotiations, disputes, partner conflicts, insolvency, restructuring — yes. The short prohibited list is public: facilitating violence, human trafficking, terrorism, weapons, drugs, harm to children, harassment of private individuals — the full list. Everything else that is lawful, we take.
To be explicit: Opponentura is decision-support software, not legal, financial or medical advice. On serious matters the report is worth showing to a live professional — that is what it is for.